1. Crude Oil: Brent Breaks $85, Middle East Tensions Dominate
As of the close of Asian markets on July 29, 2026, Brent crude futures main contract settled at $85.42/bbl, up 1.8% daily; WTI crude futures at $81.16/bbl, up 1.5%. Market participants noted that renewed escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is the main factor driving oil prices higher. Military friction between Iran and Israel near the Strait of Hormuz has sparked supply disruption concerns; despite major producers vowing to maintain stable output, risk premiums have risen significantly.
On the demand side, the summer travel peak in the Northern Hemisphere continues, U.S. gasoline stocks have declined for four consecutive weeks, and refinery runs in the Asia-Pacific region remain high. However, concerns about global economic slowdown continue to cap oil price upside. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report cut its 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the April projection.
In the Asia-Pacific spot market, Oman crude August loading cargoes were quoted at a premium of $0.35-0.45/bbl to Dubai, and Vietnam's Bach Ho crude at a premium of about $0.60/bbl, overall steady. Chinese independent refineries showed weak buying interest, with some reducing processing volumes due to narrowing margins.
2. LNG: Summer Demand Peak Supports, Asian Prices Volatile at Highs
The Northeast Asia LNG spot delivered price (JKM) on July 29 was $13.85/MMBtu, down 0.2% from the previous day but still near a four-month high. Analysts believe that hot weather is the core driver of current LNG prices. Japan and South Korea continue to experience heatwaves, with electricity demand surging and LNG-fired power generation up 15% year-on-year. East China also saw sporadic high temperatures, increasing gas-fired power loads.
On the supply side, two production lines of Australia's Gorgon LNG project have resumed full capacity, but maintenance at U.S. export terminals such as Sabine Pass has limited incremental global supply. In Europe, gas storage has exceeded 85% of capacity, but pre-winter restocking demand still supports the market. The Dutch TTF futures September contract was quoted at €38.5/MWh, down 0.8% from the previous day, with falling European gas prices putting some pressure on Asian prices.
Spot traders reported active inquiries for August cargoes, but sellers were reluctant to sell due to supply uncertainty. August delivered prices are expected to fluctuate in the $13-15/MMBtu range.
3. Coal: Asia-Pacific Thermal Coal Prices Continue to Weaken
Asia-Pacific thermal coal markets remain weak. Australia's Newcastle high-grade thermal coal (6,000 kcal) FOB price on July 29 was $98.5/ton, down 5.8% from the start of the month. The decline was more pronounced for China's imported coal CFR prices: Indonesia NAR 4,200 kcal thermal coal CFR South China ports was $52.3/ton, a year-to-date low.
Main reasons include: first, increased hydropower output in China has reduced thermal power pressure; second, domestic coal production remains high and social inventories are ample; third, some power plants have begun to reduce imported coal purchases. However, Indian demand is decent as monsoon has been weaker than expected, leading to a rebound in power demand; days of inventory at Indian power plants fell to 12 days, supporting Indonesian coal prices to stabilize.
4. Refined Products: Asia-Pacific Gasoline Strengthens, Diesel Relatively Weak
Singapore 92 RON gasoline FOB was quoted at $92.4/bbl, up 2.1% week-on-week, boosted by the travel season. Diesel 0.5%S FOB was $97.8/bbl, down 0.6% week-on-week, mainly due to weak industrial demand and oversupply. In Guangdong, the retail guidance price for 92 RON gasoline was 7.85 CNY/liter, and 0# diesel was 7.51 CNY/liter. The next adjustment window is expected to open on August 9; based on current international oil prices, domestic refined product prices may rise modestly.
5. Outlook
In the short term, energy markets will continue to be influenced by both geopolitical factors and extreme weather. For crude oil, if Middle East tensions persist, Brent could challenge the $90 level; however, if OPEC+ adjusts its production increase plan, gains could be limited. For LNG, the summer heat peak is not over, so prices tend to rise rather than fall, but high European inventories will cap upside. Thermal coal prices are expected to remain weak unless Indian demand exceeds expectations. Investors should closely follow weekly EIA inventory data and weather changes across the Asia-Pacific region.
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