Crude Prices Trend Higher
In Q2 2025, Brent crude futures rose from $78/barrel to $86/barrel, a gain of approximately 10%. High OPEC+ production cut compliance and geopolitical risk premium supported oil prices.
Natural Gas Prices Rebound Sharply
European TTF natural gas futures rose over 30% in Q2, with Asia JKM spot prices climbing in tandem. Supply-side factors including Norwegian pipeline maintenance and Australian LNG export restrictions drove the gas price rebound.
Coal Prices Continue to Weaken
Thermal coal and coking coal prices continued their downward trend in Q2. Accelerating new energy power substitution and weak steel industry demand suppressed coal prices. Newcastle thermal coal prices fell below $120/tonne.
Refined Product Market Divergence
Gasoline and diesel crack spreads showed clear divergence. Summer driving season supported gasoline demand, but diesel demand weakened due to slower industrial activity. Jet fuel demand maintained growth with international flight recovery.
H2 Outlook
Energy commodity prices are expected to continue diverging in H2. Crude oil will remain supported by tight supply-demand balance, natural gas prices depend on winter heating demand and supply recovery, while coal's long-term downward trend is unlikely to reverse.
