Institutional Crude Price Outlook
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and other international investment banks recently released H2 2025 crude market outlook reports, generally expecting international oil prices to maintain a range-bound trading pattern.
Supply-Demand Fundamentals
On the supply side, OPEC+ production cut compliance remains at a high level, while non-OPEC production growth is slowing. On the demand side, global economic growth slowdown expectations are suppressing crude demand growth, but Asia Pacific regional demand remains resilient.
Geopolitical Risk Premium
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, with Red Sea shipping disruptions and Iran nuclear issues providing risk premium to oil prices. Analysts believe geopolitical events could trigger sharp oil price volatility at any time.
Price Range Forecast
Based on institutional forecasts, Brent crude is expected to trade in the $80-95/barrel range in H2. WTI crude is expected to trade at a $4-6 discount to Brent. If unexpected supply disruptions occur, oil prices could briefly breach the $100 level.
Impact on Asia Pacific Market
International oil price trends will directly impact Asia Pacific regional energy costs and inflation levels. Crude importing nations need to closely monitor price changes and adjust energy procurement strategies and reserve policies accordingly.
